Download The Black Swan djvu

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Author:	Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Subcategory:	Computer Science
Language:	English
Publisher:	Random House; 1st Edition. edition (2007)
Pages:	400 pages
Category:	Technologies and Computers
Rating:	4.2
Other formats:	mobi doc txt lit

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events - and the human tendency to find simplistic.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan leaves Giles Foden feeling underwhelmed by its theories of improbability. Once upon a time there was a clever young financial professional called Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan leaves Giles Foden feeling underwhelmed by its theories of improbability. Of Lebanese - or, as he preferred, Levantine - descent but working in New York, he was an option trader and quantative analyst.

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb The most prophetic voice of all. -GQ Praise for The Black Swan . . -GQ Praise for The Black Swan that altered modern thinking. The Times (London) A masterpiece. Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate [Taleb. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the significance of the story lies.

1469 quotes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb: 'The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary. 'The writer Umberto Eco belongs to that small class of scholars who are encyclopedic, insightful, and nondull.

Taleb Nassim Nicholas. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a. Nassim Nicholas Taleb THE BLACK SWAN To Benoît Mandelbrot, a Greek among Romans PROLOGUE ON THE PLUMAGE OF BIRDS Before the discovery of Australia, people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence.

PRAISE FOR THE BLACK SWAN Taleb not only has an explanation for the crisis, he saw it coming. Taleb is the real thing. rightly understands that what’s brought the global banking system to its knees isn’t simply greed or wickedness bu. ntellectual hubris. DAVID BROOKS, The New York Times The hottest thinker in the world. JOHN GRAY, author of Straw Dogs (as quoted in GQ). The new sag. he trader turned author has emerged as the guru of the global financial meltdown. Not only is he riding high in the bestseller lists, his theory of black swan events has become the most seductive guide to our uncertain times.

Nassim Nicholas TalebПодлинная учетная запись. Amazing stuff! Absolutely loved this Nassim. Out hunting my own black swans with the goal of getting myself off the monthly salary heroin!!! Thank you! 0 ответов 0 ретвитов 1 отметка Нравится.

Anatomy of a black swan. A brief history of the black swan problem. 15. Chapter Five: CONFIRMATION SHMONFIRMATION!

Anatomy of a black swan. Chapter Five: CONFIRMATION SHMONFIRMATION!

The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Nassim nicholas taleb. has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge.

The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently taking a break by serving as the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncer tainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Randomness, has been published in twenty lan guages. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Comments:

Globus

The first book that I read in the four-volume "Incerto" set by Nassim Kaleb was "Antifragile," so my reading of "The Black Swan" is out of sequence. However, I am glad that I came to it in its second edition, with footnotes addressing some of the criticisms made of it (tip: flip to the footnote as soon as you come across the symbol identifying it rather reading on to the end of the chapter where they are listed). While highly relevant to the dismal science of economics, it is far from a dismal tome. Some of the anecdotes will have you chuckling or even laughing out loud! It is a highly stimulating and entertaining book and will particularly delight those who enjoy the debunking of wrong-headed purveyors of elaborate academic theories that are not just useless but actually harmful. If this sounds like a book you might enjoy, be aware that the four-volume Incerto series is available as a set, something I found out too late to profit from the knowledge. I intend to purchase the other two volumes and recommend the set. His treatment of the devastating events known as Black Swans ought to be required reading for all who would like to avoid causing or experiencing them.

DarK-LiGht

A must have read. Definitely get the second edition. The "postscript essay" is the most valuable part of the whole book. You have to slog your way through endless invectives in edition one, but the postscript in edition two ties it all together in a tight presentation. Excellent work that I came to through "The Signal and the Noise".

Zadora

It's an entertaining book although the writing style leaves much to be desired. The main points are the contempt for any other called expert (any but the author who paints himself insufferable) in regards to the a priori information about models of the world and how one can be more open to the notion of outliers.

Ce

I am not smart enough to estimate the number of people who have been given the capacity to look at the world from an entirely unique and yet vital perspective, but Nassim Taleb is definitely one of them. The insights that come to him naturally, if studied and adapted by the average person into their own thought processes, would go a long way toward advancing the enlightenment of our species in general. When Einstein said that imagination was more important than knowledge, it may have been Nassin Taleb that he had in mind. That said, I do take issue with his final statement that implied that because our existence represents, in his opinion, a one in a 180-400 billion odds of our not being alive, depending on the sperm count of the father. Who says? Do we really know for sure that each of those 180-400 billion sperm are entirely and distinctly different from each other in any discernible way? Are sperm like snow flakes, each identifiably unique? What if every individual sperm was identical to the others in its group? Consider identical twins; two sperm, two identical individuals. And if triplets or quintuplets, or even sextuplets are seemingly different from each other, is it the sperm, or is it perhaps the ova that has introduced the dissimilarity? In the one case, a black swan no doubt. In the other, a very predictable distinction.

Uris

This is an interesting, challenging book. The author believes that the events that change the world come out of the blue, are not predictable, and afterwards we try to make sense of them, pretending they are predictable. These events exist outside the ordinary where small perturbations of little real account can be managed for. Since we can;t predict Black Swans, we can manage so as to reduce the risk from negative swans and be ready and receptive to take advantage of positive ones.

I am still absorbing this but I think it has changed how I look at things and manage for risk and opportunity.

The author's writing is sometimes a bit bombastic and even perhaps condescending but a smart reader won't let that get in her way.

Original

No, I have not read 'Fooled by Randomness'. Taleb's cheekiness and loquaciousness carries on to the point of pain in several parts of this book, and there were moments while reading part that I wanted to put this book down and set it on fire, because Taleb beats you over the head with examples of his philosophy that are only marginally different. However, by the end of the book, I was looking at the world in a new way. That being said, I believe this book in its entirety is very difficult to appreciate if you are not in the correct mindset. I am an early/mid-20's finance professional going through a period of disillusionment for example. I'm asking a lot of 'why' questions that are getting under the skin of more learned people for reasons that I, and I'm fairly certain they, did not understand. I am seeing inconsistencies in things that are treated like immutable laws. But most of all I'm beginning to prefer the initial emotional abyss of knowing that I know little and am a single person doggy paddling in the ocean, than the false intellectual security reminiscent of being a passenger in first class on the Titanic.

In many ways this book tells us things that we all already know, but part of the reason that I believe it is so long is that it needs to systematically go through so many examples of situations that we all use the same type of false logic in, and tell us that it is harmful, no matter how trivial the situation may seem. Embracing what this book is trying to say is painful, and will cause extreme amounts of cognitive dissonance if you are not in the right place. You can generally tell if you fall into that category, when you find yourself picking holes in the edge of the argument for black swans, rather that looking at your held beliefs through the central idea of the book: seeing a million white swans does not confirm the theory that every swan is white, however the sight of one black swan means that the theory is irreparably flawed.

as a real world example, an algorithm that can perfectly predict a normal commodity market and provide consistent returns for 5 years, but is wrong for one day when the market moves 200+% due to a spontaneous crisis, is useless. The one day is the only thing that mattered, while the 20% years of small consistency are the statistical noise.

Most people will always prefer a seemingly solid floor to stand on, even if it prevents them from realizing that they're sinking into the ocean

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